This study was carried out using the scenario-planning method. Trends and uncertainties are identified, so as to create consistent and plausible scenarios. These scenarios give direction to the debate about the future; they show the opportunities and threats in a particular sector.
The scenarios can be developed in different ways. In this case, it was decided to perform a trend analysis, in combination with the widely used and proven cross-axis method. In this way, impactful trends are identified, both certain and uncertain. This is important because we know that certain trends will continue. The development of the uncertain trends, on the other hand, is not certain. Hence, the most impactful uncertain trends form the basis for the axes. This method has the advantage that it produces a sufficient diversity of future images while only one future image would arise if you would only rely on certain trends.
Earlier, the Stimulation Fund for Journalism (SvdJ) twice conducted a scenario study into the future of journalism in the Netherlands in 2025 and 2035. These studies were conducted in a similar manner. This research is therefore their follow-up.
The research was carried out in the following steps:
1. A survey of experts on key questions about the future of journalism education.
2. A literature review on a) trends in (higher) education and b) journalism education specifically.
3. The determination of clusters of topics for the sessions with experts.
4. Sessions with experts in diverse groups in which certain and uncertain trends were identified.
5. The determination of the axes based on the most impactful uncertainties.
6. Sounding board sessions with experts on the axes.
7. Drawing up the four scenarios based on the outcomes of the sessions.